The NFL Minute

Booms and Busts - A Look at the No. 1 Picks Over the Past 20 Years

Tom V. — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 20:23:56 +0000

The NFL Draft has earned a reputation for being little more than a crapshoot. Considering the number of hours NFL scouts spend poring over game tapes, watching athletes run sprints, and quizzing them to find a “Wonderlic” score, it’s a bit odd that there are no “sure things.”

Even players drafted first overall in the draft and guaranteed $30-40 million can go “bust” in an instant. Or they could live up to their expectations and go “boom,” retiring on their own terms after a solid career. That’s the excitement of the NFL Draft and why fans actually care enough to tune in for hours at a time to see who their team thought was the best available college player.

Below is a list of the number one overall picks of the past two decades and whether they went “boom” or “bust” after entering the NFL with high expectations. Enjoy:

2007 - JaMarcus Russell - Too Early to Tell - Russell was drafted number overall by the Oakland Raiders last season but , after an extensive hold out that lasted almost until the start of the regular season, found himself on the sideline for much of the year. Al Davis loves his rocket arm and has given him some solid receivers to throw the ball to in 2008, but still hasn’t surrounded him with an offensive line, which may hurt a promising career.

2006 - Mario Williams - Too Early to Tell - The Houston Texans were heavily criticized after drafting Williams over Reggie Bush, but after two seasons in the NFL, it’s not easy to say who actually came out on top. Bush had a phenomenal rookie season but saw his numbers drop off in 2007 after teammate Deuce McAllister became injured. Meanwhile, Williams has put together back-to-back solid seasons at defensive end, finishing last season with 14.0 sacks and 2 forced fumbles.

2005 - Alex Smith - Too Early to Tell - After a good looking sophomore season, Alex Smith slumped again in 2007, after the departure of coordinator Norv Turner. He completed just 48.7% of his passes last season and started just seven games, finishing with a 57.2 quarterback rating, the worst of his short career.

2004 - Eli Manning - BOOM - Eli Manning stunned his critics — and he had plenty, many of whom wanted him cut — last season when he led the Giants to a Super Bowl victory over the New England Patriots. He was outstanding in his four postseason games and was able to snag a Super Bowl MVP trophy along the way. And the fact that he’s already tied brother Peyton in Super Bowl wins and MVP’s is justification enough.

2003 - Carson Palmer - BOOM - Palmer has had a little trouble with interceptions as of late, but his career 90.1 quarterback rating is amazing, as is the fact that he’s thrown at least 26 touchdown passes and 3800 yards each of the past three seasons. No doubt about it, Palmer is among the elites at his position.

2002 - David Carr - BUST - After five seasons of getting pummeled in Houston, Carr moved on to Carolina where fans thought he could put his career back together. Such was not the case. Carr was cut after just one season and, perhaps more embarrassing, was replaced by 40-odd year old Vinny Testaverde during the regular season. Ouch.

2001 - Michael Vick - BUST - The uber-athletic Vick wasn’t able to evade a guilty verdict that sentenced him to 23 months in prison. Otherwise he might well be considered a “boom” after his NFL career in which he scampered around defenders and kept the Atlanta Falcons franchise relevant.

2000 - Courtney Brown - BUST - The Browns spent a first round draft choice on Brown, only to get burned after five seasons of relatively inept play. He went to the Broncos in 2005, but was cut after the season. He hasn’t been in NFL since.

1999 - Tim Couch - BUST - Talk about bad luck for the Browns. The expansion team took highly touted Tim Couch first overall, a shame considering a few of the other names in the top ten of the ‘99 class: Donovan McNabb (2), Edgerrin James (4), Torry Holt (6), Champ Bailey (7), and Chris McAllister (10).

1998 - Peyton Manning - BOOM - Manning lived up to the hype that surrounded him and even surpassed it. A shoe-in for the Hall of Fame when he retires, Manning is on pace to blow through every passing record in the books. He hasn’t missed a start since entering the NFL and has been selected to six consecutive Pro Bowls, making him one of the greatest quarterbacks ever to play the game.

1997 - Orlando Pace - BOOM - An elite offensive tackle before injuries began taking away his playing time, the Rams have gotten a lot out of Pace over his eleven seasons in the NFL. He remains one of the league’s top tackles when he’s healthy and has played a big role in the Rams’ successes on offense over the years.

1996 - Keyshawn Johnson - BOOM - Me-shawn (yeah, he’ll never get away from that) proved himself to be one of the best wide receivers in the NFL — but one of the most aggravating personalities. He retired with 814 catches and over 10,000 receiving yards and is now one of the not-so-terrible ESPN analysts.

1995 - Ki-Jana Carter - BUST - Injuries spoiled his career, though, amazingly, he had 15 rushing touchdowns in his first two NFL seasons, despite averaging just 2.9 yards per carry. He retired in 2004 with 1144 rushing yards and 21 total scores and didn’t start a single game after those first two years.

1994 - Dan Wilkinson - BOOM - Wilkinson lasted 13 seasons in the NFL playing the interior of the defensive line for four different franchises. He closed his career with 54.5 sacks and just 6 forced fumbles. Still, though he might never be considered one of the greats, Wilkinson had a stretch of six seasons during the early half of his career during which he was one of the best tackles in the league.

1993 - Drew Bledsoe - BOOM - Bledsoe was one of those quarterbacks who was unfairly cut from his current team after years of being one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He retired after the 2006 season with 44611 passing yards and 251 touchdowns and is a lock to have his bust in the Hall of Fame.

1992 - Steve Emtman - BUST - If you said to yourself Who the heck is Steve Emtman? when you read his name, you’re not unlike 99% of the population. The defensive tackle/end from Washington University retired at the age of 27 after 6 seasons in the NFL and a grand total of 8.0 sacks and 3 forced fumbles.

1991 - Russell Maryland - BOOM - Lasting ten seasons in the NFL, Maryland retired with 24.5 sacks and 9 forced fumbles. He had been a part of Dallas Cowboys defense that had dominated offenses and won 3 Super Bowls during the 1990s.

1990 - Jeff George - BUST - It’s tough to say how George lasted 12 NFL seasons. Not only was he one of the most disappointing first overall draft picks in recent history, he managed to be, at the same time, one of the most arrogant, cocky, and hate-able players in the league. His teammates despised him and, in the words of one Indianapolis fan, “he couldn’t see the forest for the me’s.”

1989 - Troy Aikman - BOOM - The Hall of Fame quarterback won three Super Bowls with the Dallas Cowboys and retired as one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history. It’s only a shame that his career was cut short by concussions. At least fans can still enjoy his insight during FOX football games, as he and Joe Buck make up one of the best booth duos.

1988 - Aundray Bruce - BUST - The LB/DE/TE (at least for one pass) spent more than a decade in the NFL with three different franchises and retired with 32 sacks, 9 forced fumbles, and 4 interceptions. As a NFL player he was decent. As a first round draft choice, however, he was little more than a bust.

Return of The NFL Minute

Tom V. — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 01:09:06 +0000

The NFL Minute launched April, 2007 hoping to make an impact and inform fantasy footballers with the latest news and advice. Since then, it has gone through several distinct periods of development. First, the news/analysis period in which I took it upon myself to break down every bit of news that hit the wire. Second, the opinionated columns and editorials period during which I told readers how I feel about the Patriots cheating, Brett Favre’s MVP candidacy, and the Giants winning the Super Bowl. Third, was the “I need to rethink this site and what it’s all about period,” in which almost no updates were made from February to April, 2008.

This is the fourth stage of development.

Ravens Want to Keep Lewis

Tom V. — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 12:45:22 +0000

The Ravens and Ray Lewis apart? Not if team owner Steve Bisciotti can help it. “If he becomes a free agent next year, I think the Ravens would probably outbid other teams,” Bisciotti said. “We know Ray’s value more than the other teams. We know the leadership he brings to the team. We know the commitment and the effort he gives to winning.” The Ravens and Lewis have had disputes about extensions in the past, but with the defense’s collapses growing more frequent during the season and the offense’s continued apathetic play, it makes sense to keep an icon and leader like Lewis around.

Deal for Pacman Likely to Get Done Within Days

Tom V. — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 12:36:13 +0000

If the Cowboys get a deal done, we’ll hear about it within the next few days. “It’s probable, if we’re going to get something done, we’ll do it while we’re here at these meetings,” Jerry Jones said. “…We’ve got some more talks we’ve got to do with the Titans, and we will do that while we’re here.” The meetings referred to by Jones are the owners’ annual meetings, when the league’s owners, general managers, and coaches meet in Florida to discuss changes in the NFL, so Jerry Jones (who’s clearly making the call on this one) can meet with the Tennessee Titans officials face-to-face to discuss Pacman. It seems likely the Cowboys will acquire Jones. They’ve shown serious interest in the Titans defensive back and since the Titans aren’t asking for a lot — a fourth round pick this year and a sixth round pick next year — the upside of Jones almost certainly outweighs the costs to acquire him.

Packers Interested in Pacman?

Tom V. — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 12:26:11 +0000

The Packers are reportedly interested in acquiring Pacman Jones from the Tennessee Titans, who Jones has all but vowed he will never play for again. There are, of course, a few things wrong with this rumor. First and foremost, the Packers have two of the better corners in the AFC, Al Harris and Charles Woodson. Second, and just as important, general manager Ted Thompson rarely makes a significant free agent signing, nor does he make a controversial one. Of course, signing Pacman would fall under both categories.

The rumor does have a few things going for it, though. Both Harris and Woodson are in their 30s and the Packers may want to sign the uber-athletic Pacman Jones to be the team’s future. Harris also showed serious signs of decay last season, getting burned by good wide receivers and frustrating Packers fans.

Still, the front-runner to acquire Jones at this point remains the Dallas Cowboys.

No Decision on Ogden’s Future, Yet

Tom V. — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 01:14:48 +0000

Jon Ogden isn’t reporting to minicamp, but there’s still no word as to whether or not he’ll retire. But at least he’s made a timeline: next month, before the draft. “If I can’t play football the way I’m used to playing, then I’m not going to return,” Ogden, 33, said yesterday. “If I think I can, I want to give it a shot.” The loss of the future hall of fame tackle will be detrimental to the Baltimore Ravens, who have already struggled to establish themselves on offense. And it’s definitely not going to be good for new head coach John Harbaugh, who enters a system where former head coach Brian Billick was fired this season after years of failed attempts to build an offense.

Pacman Trade Imminent?

Tom V. — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 00:49:34 +0000

Pacman Jones has made it clear that his days with the Tennessee Titans are over. At a charity basketball game this weekend, Pacman signed a ball with the number 21 — the number of former Dallas great Deion Sanders — instead of his own number, 32. But his agent is adamant in denying that any deal has been made, yet. “You would think the Titans would tell me they had traded him if they had,” agent Manny Arora said. Of course, a deal will likely be done soon to ensure Pacman does have the opportunity to wear number 21 next season.

The ruling on whether Jones will be playing in 2008 is yet to be made. The NFL has only stated that the decision will be made before training camp begins, meaning there is the chance the Cowboys — or some other suitor, as Arora claims “there are a lot of teams interested” — will be stuck with Jones on the roster but off the playing field.

McFadden to Patriots?

Tom V. — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 00:24:21 +0000

The latest draft talk rumors have the New England Patriots considering Arkansas running back Darren McFadden, going so far as to fly the standout prospect to New England for an interview of sorts. Widely considered the most athletic player in the draft, and arguably the best prospect, McFadden has caught the attention of plenty of teams, but the Patriots are the most interesting.

It’s not because he’ll fit in well — which he likely will, with Bill Belichick making the calls — but because it begs the question, where will he fit in? Laurence Maroney was the team’s starter last season, but he missed plenty of time due to injuries. And while the Patriots managed to by without a running game (in fact, they tore opponents apart without a dominant runner), the team could clearly use a game-breaker like McFadden. McFadden could prove himself a worthy upgrade, but should the Patriots draft him and invest a massive signing bonus in a position already loaded with considerable depth and talent?

Team Needs: Chicago Bears

Tom V. — Thu, 24 Jan 2008 00:06:56 +0000

What You Say: Quarterback

What I Say: Offensive Line, Wide Receiver, Safety

Unlike most fans, I don’t think that the Bears greatest need is at quarterback. Rex Grossman is still a relatively inexperienced and young quarterback at roughly the same stage of development as a player like Matt Leinart (considering actual game time — Grossman, as most will remember, had a history of injuries).

But the team does have other issues on offense. The Bears struggled for the first time in years to run the ball effectively and the quarterback, whether it was Griese or Grossman or Orton, had little time in the pocket. That reflects on the offensive line. Meanwhile, tackle Fred Miller and guard Ruben Brown are both nearing the end of their career. Clearly, the Bears should do something in the draft to acquire some new talent on the line.

At wide receiver the Bears most notable name is Bernard “I can’t catch a pass when it matters” Berrian. And he’s a free agent. Muhsin Muhammad is nearing the tail end of his career and doesn’t have many good seasons left in the tank.

Finally, the Bears defense was very unimpressive in 2007. It finished 30th in interceptions, so improving the defensive backfield could do wonders. Adam Archuleta is simply not a good safety. He offers fairly good run support at this point in his career, but he may have been the worst starting safety in the NFL this season. Simply put, he can’t cover.

Team Needs: Tennessee Titans

Tom V. — Wed, 23 Jan 2008 23:50:54 +0000

What You Say: MLB, FS, and WRs

My Top 3: DL, WR, and TE

Albert Haynesworth has been a great defensive tackle for the Tennessee Titans for a considerable amount of time now, but his contract expires after the season. Whether the team keeps him around via the franchise tag or a long-term deal or lets him go to free agency remains a question. The team also no doubt could use someone to play opposite him at tackle.

After watching the Titans struggle over the past several seasons, it’s become incredibly apparent that the team has a gaping hole when it comes to talent at receiver. Vince Young is a good, young quarterback who has struggled at times because of his receiving talent. Acquiring some help at wide receiver, as well as tight end, could make the Titans a more threatening team. And considering what they’ve accomplished without great talent on offense, they could finally give Indianapolis a real run for the division.