Trends are a big part of fantasy football analysis during the course of a season. They provide reason to dump a player, and most fantasy football owners don’t look at these numbers often enough. Inconsistency or consistent drops in numbers are two things that can kill a fantasy owner if he doesn’t react to them by making sure his best possible starter is in the game.
The following four fantasy running backs have shown noticeable inconsistency or a regressing trend line. Either way, take note.
1. Darren McFadden - Oakland Raiders
Look at Darren McFadden’s numbers for the season and you might think he’s had a lot of success. Unfortunately, his numbers are skewed because of his week two trampling of the Kansas City Chiefs, who rank 31st in rushing defense this season.
Take that game out of the equation and McFadden has 108 rushing yards and zero touchdowns in his three other starts this season. The two biggest reasons: the inconsistency in which he touches the football and his yard per carry average, which is just 3.6.
2. Earnest Graham - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Earnest Graham is another player whose season numbers are heavily skewed, due mainly to three runs which picked up a combined 161 yards for him. Take away those three carries and Graham has 232 rushing yards and just one rushing touchdown in five games.
Graham hasn’t handled enough carries per game this season to make me feel good starting him each and every week. He’s averaging less than 14 carries per start and no running back averaging more than 70 rushing yards per game has carried as infrequently as Graham. The average among the 13 backs with more than 70 rushing yards: 18.6 carries per game.
3. Matt Forte - Chicago Bears
Matt Forte kicked off the season strong and, as expected, he’s the Bears clear-cut featured back. Now, what’s interesting is that his attempts in games this season has not fluctuated a whole lot (though he is carrying less and less, lately). But the trend to notice is how sharply (and consistently) his yards have gone down in his five starts this season.
Of course, I might point out that he’s been a very effective receiver for the Bears and he’s scored touchdowns in three games. Still, it’s worth noting that his rushing yards are dropping so sharply, as is, not surprisingly, his yard per carry average.
4. DeAngelo Williams - Carolina Panthers
(Fantasy points based on “standard” measurement: .1 pt/yard, 6 points/touchdown)
If you watched the Panthers dismantle the Chiefs, you may have noticed how effective DeAngelo Williams was. He scored three touchdowns in the game and rushed for 123 yards, tacking on another 25 receiving. However, don’t be duped into thinking he’s a solid RB2 option; at least, not yet.
Consider how he had done prior to that game. In his three previous starts the Panthers handed him the ball just 36 times and his longest carry was 21 yards. He averaged just over 37 rushing yards per game and scored zero touchdowns.
Take a look at the chart above. The entire pie is his total fantasy points for the season, and the gray area is his fantasy points for this past week. That’s right: he scored nearly 60 percent of his total fantasy points in one week.
So if you missed Sunday’s game and simply looked at Williams’ season numbers, you might think he’s been pretty good; after all, he’s averaging 11.0 fantasy points per game this season and he has 3 touchdowns.
Notice how deceptive season numbers can be.
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