Before the season started, you probably assumed that the AFC West would shake down something like this: San Diego in first place, followed (in order) by Denver, Kansas City, and Oakland. Fast forward to today, four weeks into the season, and you probably have a hard time believing the Raiders, Broncos, and Chiefs are in a three way tie for first place while the Chargers are coming apart at the seams, dropping their past three games, two of which they were heavy favorites.

So what happened? Why the shift in dominance?

Looking at San Diego, it seems obvious that the coaching change from Marty “can’t win in the postseason” Schottenheimer to Norv “can’t win any time of the year” Turner was a bad move. It was criticized the day it was announced and things are only going to get worse unless the Chargers salvage the season and go on a tear to make the playoffs. Unlikely.

Schottenheimer was a very good coach. It wasn’t his fault the Chargers choked in the postseason against New England. San Diego’s front office made a mistake when they fired him. Not only because he was a good coach, but because they did it too late and without a good candidate to replace him.

I guess that explains how San Diego has squandered its talent this season while making LaDainian Tomlinson the un-happiest guy in football. His press conferences are usually accompanied by tears and frustration and quotes like “we’re not the team we were last year” and “don’t compare” last year’s team to this year’s team. Sorry, but going from 14-2 to 1-3 and descending is too disappointing to overlook.

But they aren’t the only team struggling this season. The Denver Broncos, a preseason favorite to go places, have failed to show up on gameday. Jay Cutler has looked alright, but the defense, the one that was expected to be phenomenal thanks to coordinator Jim Bates and bookend corner addition Dre Bly. Unfortunately, the latter can’t help it the front seven can’t stop the run; that’s Bates’ territory and he hasn’t adjusted the line, yet.

It took last-second field goals to beat the Raiders and Bills and this week’s thrashing delivered by Indianapolis only seems to cement the fact Denver isn’t ready to make a splash in the postseason — if they get there.

I guess that brings us to the Chiefs. Projected to have a decent season, though not playoff-caliber, the Chiefs have limped to a 2-2 record, not counting the second half beatdown they delivered against San Diego, outscoring the Bolts 24-0 in the third and fourth quarters.

But even despite the 30 points scored in that game, the Chiefs average only 14 per contest this season after scoring 3, 10, and 13 in their first 3 games. Crazy.

Finally, Oakland. What can be said of the Raiders? It’s hard to criticize a team that had zero preseason expectations. Most thought they’d finish with 4 or so wins this year, but rookie head coach Lane Kiffin has been a pleasant surprise. He’s managed to rally the team to a 2-2 record with consecutive victories under his belt. More impressively, he’s made the Raiders the NFL’s best rush offense. Let me repeat that: the Raiders, led by LaMont Jordan and Justin Fargas, have the league’s best ground attack.

Unbelievable. Almost as amazing? Daunte Culpepper’s knee is fine. He ran — didn’t hobble — for three touchdowns against Miami. And threw two more, despite only 75 yards passing. Of course, it didn’t hurt that Fargas had 179 yards on the ground. Again, the Raiders offense appears to be for real. They’ve scored at least 20 points every outing this year, a huge improvement over last season.

One thing is certain: everything is topsy-turvy in the AFC West. Of course, that might be the best thing about the NFL. Let me ask you, do you anyone who would have predicted this before the season started? Chances are, no. Parity rules in pro football, and this is just one great example.

Photos by Eliot J. Schechter and Getty Images

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