Every fantasy football draft is going to see at least one owner pondering over whether or not he or she should draft Peyton Manning in the first round. It’s generally the owner with a mid-round pick, 6-8 is usually the position where he is at a higher value than a running back.

So, do you pull the trigger? What’s the earliest position where drafting Manning is a smart move?

Let’s assume you have a 12-team league, the average and, in my opinion, optimum number of players. Your rules are also the average: 6 points for any touchdown except passing, 4 points for each passing touchdown, 1 point per 10 yards receiving/rushing, 1 point per 25 yards passing, -1 point for interceptions.

LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Shaun Alexander are all off the board when the draft gets to you at number 6. Peyton Manning is still available, but so is Joseph Addai, Willie Parker, Brian Westbrook, and Rudi Johnson. Each of these runners is poised for a good season, though Westbrook is a more risky pick because of his history of injuries.

The great thing about Manning is that there are a couple things you can be sure of: (1) he will not get hurt and (2) he will throw for at least 4000 yards and 30 touchdowns in 2007. Whenever you can predict with a great degree of accuracy those kinds of statistics, the value of the player is increased. Consistency (and health) are definitely gold when it comes to fantasy football.

But, and this is very important, you must realize that by the time you draft again in the second round there will be at least 10 more running backs taken off the board. Considering that already 5 have been taken off the board, you’re looking at your top running back being the 16th overall.

Me? I’ll take my chances with Westbrook while I still can for a couple reasons. One, he has 2000 yard potential and he’s the last remaining big time fantasy running back. After him, the dropoff begins. Two, if Donovan McNabb goes down — very strong possibility — Westbrook will be counted on that much more.

Alright, so Manning is still on the board and the draft moves on to 7th overall. Willie Parker is the only running back I can see being worth as much as Manning because of his touchdown potential. With that said, Parker is where the dropoff at running back begins.

So, being the shrewd fantasy guru I am, I’ll take Manning here. Why? Simple. When the draft rolls around next, 10 more running backs will have come off the board. That should leave me with someone like Ronnie Brown, Travis Henry, or Edgerrin James. At the very least, I’m getting a running back who has good potential.

And my quarterback questions have already been addressed; with this position, I can use the next 10+ rounds on running backs and receivers/tight ends.

Through my example, I’ve shown you that the earliest you should draft Manning is 7th overall (in a 12 person draft). With this position, he’s the best value and there is still some good backs in the second round. (However, if Westbrook or Alexander or any of the other top 6 picks are still on the board, draft them. They are upper-tier running backs who will definitely produce.)

Image: Courtesy USA Today 

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