Can someone please explain to me how it is that Larry Johnson is being passed over in fantasy drafts in favor of the likes of Joseph Addai, Frank Gore, and others? How is it that a running back who finished number two overall in fantasy points each of the past two seasons is being ignored by the number two fantasy pick in most drafts and sometimes the number three pick?

Let’s take a look at the three primary arguments against drafting Johnson:

He’ll Burn Out!

Evidently, owners are being scared off by “experts” who are worried about the toll Johnson’s 416 carries last season will take on him. What?

Are you telling me that a player who has only two seasons under his belt as the Chiefs full time starter is being passed over by owners worried about his durability? Bracing for a 27 year old running back’s burnout is not a wise move.

Certainly, he won’t be taking such a heavy load in 2007. You should probably expect 340 or so carries, but that still isn’t reason enough to pass on him.

Trent Green is gone!

True, Trent Green won’t be wearing the red and white jersey next season and his replacements are Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard. So it’s reasonable that owners are voicing some concern over the moves.

But don’t forget that Green only played 8 games last season. In games in which either Croyle or Huard played and attempted at least 15 passes (10 games), Larry Johnson averaged nearly 140 yards from scrimmage (139.4, actauly) and scored 1.5 times per outing. In games in which Green attempted at least 15 passes (8), Johnson averaged a little more than 139 yards and scored an average of .88 touchdowns per game. In other words, he actually performed better when relied upon to do so.

What if He’s Traded or He Holds Out?

If traded, Johnson will go to a team with deep pockets; Green Bay is the leading candidate right now. There is no way he winds up with a team where he’s splitting carries with another back, however. He’ll still touch the ball at least 20 times a game, probably closer to 25.

But if he isn’t traded, it’s because the Chiefs resigned him. There is no way they will let him hold out an entire season when his contract expires next year. If they decide it isn’t worth paying him a top tier salary (he is worth it), they’ll trade him. But they won’t simply keep him on roster.

The likely scenario is that Johnson plays out the final year of his contract before he is (a) franchise tagged or (b) resigned to a new deal.

In other words, no matter where he plays next season, Johnson is going to get plenty of touches and plenty of fantasy points. There’s no cause for alarm.

Projections

Let’s consider: if Johnson carries another 340+ times this season (the word is that Herm Edwards is going to avoid running Johnson into an early retirement) and averages a modest 4.0 yards per carry he’ll still break 1350 yards. And you can bet he’ll be a solid receiving option in the Chiefs’ offense, so expect another 40-50 receptions for 400-500 yards. Already Johnson is at a minimum 2007 performance of 1750 yards. Throw in 18 touchdowns and you have the makings of a fantasy player worthy of a top three pick.

Again, those were modest projections; Johnson has never averaged fewer than 4.2 yards per carry in his career and he’s increased his receptions each year he’s been in the league. If we bump up his ypc average to 4.5 you can expect close to 1600 yards rushing and a 2000 yard season.

A Couple Sweet Facts You Can Use

There were three games last season when Johnson didn’t total more than 100 yards from scrimmage. On the other hand, there were 10 games last season when he totaled more than 140 yards.

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