Entering the NFL being compared to the great Gale Sayers, Reggie Bush had a lot to live up to last season. And while he may not have been another Sayers, he did add a threatening aspect to the offense.
Despite being drafted as a running back, it’s difficult to categorize Bush. He can line up at wide receiver, in the backfield, or returning punts; but the best part is, he’s a threat to score on any given play in each of those roles.
Be it catching the football (he did that 88 times last season to rank 10th in the league) or carrying it out of the backfield (he scored 5 touchdowns on the ground in the Saints final five games of the season, despite carrying only 46 times), Bush is a player who can fill any role his team needs him to and do so effectively.
But does that make him worthy of your first round pick? Let’s dig a little deeper to find out.
Rattling off those stats above, I may have made Reggie Bush appear to be a decent alternative to LaDainian Tomlinson; he is not. After all, it took Bush until the 10th game of the season last year before he scored his first offensive touchdown. And it wasn’t until week 13 that he scored again (and again and again and again; four times total, actually).
After that he got the ball rolling. From week 13 through the Saints final game in week 17 Bush scored seven of his eight total offensive touchdowns.
But to qualify as a first round pick, Bush will need to score on a more consistent basis in 2007. In fact, he’ll need to score more altogether to qualify himself. Fortunately, he has some other things working in his favor.
Most notably, he’s a great receiving option. I mentioned in passing before that Bush caught 88 tosses last season. You can expect him to walk away from 2007 with close to that total again now that Joe Horn has left for Atlanta, so you can definitely draft him in the first round if your fantasy league awards points for receptions
As a runner, however, Bush didn’t truly excel. The most obvious reason being that he was a secondary running back (he only carried 155 times). But it was more than that. He didn’t consistently pick up yards (his rushing average was 3.6 yards per carry), and you better believe the Saints will again use Deuce McAllister in short yardage and , more importantly, goal line situations.
Obviously, if you were drafting Bush for his rushing totals, he isn’t a first round draft pick. If you draft him for his receiving totals, he isn’t a first round draft pick. But when you combine those two facets of his game and throw in the potential to score on punts, you have what could amount to a first rounder.
Consider: in his rookie season, he finished 17th among all running backs in terms of fantasy totals.
Imagine if he carries his final five games — 545 total yards and 7 scores — into next season. Granted, I’m not projecting a 2000 yard, 20 touchdown season. But what I am suggesting is something a little closer to what he is capable: at least 1450 yards (total), 12 touchdowns, and 75+ receptions. Throw in another score, considering his electricity as a punt returner.
Basically, what I’m saying is that you should draft Bush in the first round (late first round) if your league awards points per reception (PPR) or if it is a keeper league. If both, you’ve struck gold. If neither, wait until the middle of the second round.
The biggest reason I’m passing on him is because of his streakiness. I expect him to maintain more consistency in ‘07, but not enough to warrant his selection as a fantasy team’s RB1. But at the very least, you can consider him a younger (healthier) Brian Westbrook; and there’s nothing wrong with that.
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