What does Calvin Johnson mean for a fantasy team?

No NFL rookie entered the draft in 2007 with more hype than Calvin Johnson. His uncanny combination of size and speed makes him a constant threat and someone who can stretch the field. He’s another Randy Moss or Terrell Owens — without the baggage.

And he was drafted by the Detroit Lions, a team with an improving offense that should make use of Johnson’s skills. Playing opposite Roy Williams should allow Johnson some room to work because both players are dangerous if left open.

He also has the added advantage of playing with a veteran quarterback, Jon Kitna. Kitna isn’t new to playing with talented, young receivers. Remember, in Cincinnati he threw passes to both Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, not to mention players who went “bust” like Peter Warrick.

But how much can Johnson really produce from a fantasy perspective?

First, let’s consider the Detroit offense. Last season, Kitna threw for 4208 yards and 21 touchdowns. And even though he has bigger plans for 2007 (10 wins for the Lions and 50 touchdown passes?), we should expect about the same. How those yards and touchdowns are distributed, however, is a much trickier question to ask.

Last season, only three Detroit players had more than 21 catches: Kevin Jones (61), Roy Williams (82), and Mike Furrey (98). Keep in mind that Jones is the team’s running back, meaning only two receivers on the team had more than 21 catches. That’s a pretty staggering distribution, and it will be interesting to see where Johnson will fit into the equation.

And with Mike Martz running the offense, it’s hard telling how he will use Johnson. We can expect success, yes, but to what degree? At this time, Johnson is considered the team’s number one or two receiver on the depth chart (depending on your source) ahead of Furrey who, as stated earlier, caught a team-leading 98 passes last season. Expect Johnson to take away from that number as the team’s new number two target.

That again brings up the question, how much will Johnson take away from that number while contributing his own share? I guess at this point it’s anyone’s guess. There’s no doubt he’ll be sharing touches with Furrey, Williams, and even Jones.

Personally, I don’t view him as a top 20 or 25 wide receiver at this point. Expect stats that will qualify him as a fantasy team’s number three wide receiver.