With Dominic Rhodes exiting Indianapolis, fantasy footballers have two questions on their minds: just how good will Joseph Addai be as the team’s full time starter? And more importantly, when should he be drafted?

Addai is fortunate to be in Indianapolis. Not only does he have a great offensive line blocking for him, but Peyton Manning and the Colts receiving corps have combined to rank in the top five in passing yards since 1999, Manning’s second season in the NFL. Success like that keeps a defense on its toes, and that’s something any running back can appreciate.

But it’s more than that. Peyton Manning’s knowledge of the game allows him to audible not only to a pass when he realizes a defense is playing run, but he isn’t afraid to hand the ball to his running back in any given situation if he feels the team will benefit from it. And more often than not, he’s right.

Of course, Addai will need some skills of his own if he wants to blast through defenses near the goal line or take on other running situations. How he handles those situations can make or break his fantasy value.

Fortunately, Addai was blessed with all the necessary skills a running back needs to thrive in the NFL. In fact, when asked to name a weakness in his game during an interview with Sporting News magazine, Addai simply shrugged and said matter-of-factly that he doesn’t have one.

That’s not arrogance. It’s confidence.

It’s why the Colts were willing to part ways with Dominic Rhodes and allow Addai to carry a full time load. If the defending champions are that confident, shouldn’t we fantasy owners be that confident as well?

Statistics from 2006

                 +--------------------------+-------------------------+
                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 2006 ind |  16 |   226   1081    4.8    7 |    40    325   8.1    1 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
|  TOTAL   |  16 |   226   1081    4.8    7 |    40    325   8.1    1 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

Yearly rushing totals for Colts running backs, since 2004

2006: 1762 yards and 17 touchdowns

2005: 1703 yards and 18 touchdowns

2004: 1852 yards and 10 touchdowns

Conclusion: Addai is confident he lacks nothing in his game, but I’m still not certain he’s worth a top three pick. I’m projecting at least 1900 total yards (1450 rushing and 450 receiving) and 16 scores for Addai in 2007. That’s definite first round production by most standards, potentially top five.

What else should you read? How about finding out who you should draft number two overall? But before you do that, let me know what you think about Addai by dropping me a line in the comment box.

Subscribe to The NFL Minute

This post is tagged