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Fantasy rookie running backs analyzed

Jun 25th 2007
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Adrian Peterson is one a few fantasy backs you should keep your eye on when your draft day rolls around

The NFL Draft is long gone but the discussions surrounding it are definitely not. In part two of this three part series analyzing the debates, I’ll fill you in on some rookie running backs who have fantasy owners curious: Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Michael Bush, Chris Henry, and Brandon Jackson.

Oakland RaidersMichael Bush (Oakland Raiders) — The Raiders walked away with a great draft and their selection of Bush in the 4th round is one of the reasons. A great athlete who can run defenders over, Bush was passed on by most teams because he was injured for nearly the entire 2006 season.

But that doesn’t take away from the fact that he’s still a great back, someone who can make a difference. And being in Oakland, believe it or not, Bush is in a great position to both recover and get some playing time.

With two solid veteran running backs — Lamont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes — figuring to fill the top spots on the depth chart, Bush is not going to receive a lot of touches. Because of this, you should probably pass on drafting Bush this year.

Draft him? No. Lamont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes will combine for the vast majority of game time and touches.

Tennessee TitansChris Henry (Tennessee Titans) — It was known leading up to the draft that Tennessee was hurting at running back. With only the lazy and oft-out of shape LenDale White and the hope Chris Brown will be ready for 2007, it was clear something needed to be done. There were rumors the team would complete a trade for San Diego’s Michael Turner, but when that fell through, the team deemed it necessary to draft someone.

Enter Chris Henry. The Arizona running back with the crazy hair had seldom been used during his first three seasons with the team, and in 2006 he was only able to carry 165 times for 581 yards. But his thick athletic frame caught the eye of scouts, and he was drafted in the second round by Tennessee.

The role Henry will play in the Tennessee offense is speculative at this point. Head coach Jeff Fisher said that the starting job is wide open at this point and there is little reason to not believe him. With Brown being eased back into minicamp drills and Henry not being “overly impressive” in drills, it’s anyone’s guess at this point how things will play out.

That said, my favorite going into the season at this point is Brown. I see White getting a decent amount of touches while Henry is worked into the offense with a couple touches per game.

Draft him? Henry isn’t a guy I’d draft unless he is declared the starter sometime soon or an injury strikes soon.

Green Bay Packers Brandon Jackson (Green Bay Packers) — Green Bay was engulfed in rumors leading up to the draft. It was reported that the team had engaged in trade talks with both Kansas City (that rumor still hasn’t fizzled out) and San Diego for a running back.

Draft day came and went and no trade was made. Fortunately, however, the Packers did manage to snare Nebraska’s Brandon Jackson in the 2nd round. A great athlete, Jackson didn’t see a lot of touches in college. But when he did, he made the most of them. With only 188 carries, Jackson almost broke the 1000 yard barrier (989 yards) and scored 8 touchdowns.

Jackson enters Green Bay as the team’s number two back. He unfortunately hurt his knee in training camp (nothing too serious), but maintains his spot behind Vernand Morency.

Morency carried 96 times for 434 yards last season as the team’s number two back behind Ahman Green. Expecting him to carry the full load this season is unreasonable, one of the reasons Morency will get playing time. Expect him to get at least 5-6 touches per game (rounds out to about 90 carries on the season).

Draft him? Not yet. Morency is the still the starter in Green Bay’s offense.

Buffalo BillsMarshawn Lynch (Buffalo Bills) — Despite some teams’ needs for running backs, none quite surpassed that of the Buffalo Bills. Prior to the draft they had traded last season’s starting running back Willis McGahee to the Baltimore Ravens, and like the Titans and Packers, Buffalo was rumored to be interested in trading for Michael Turner. When the deal didn’t come through, Buffalo’s hand was forced and they pulled the trigger on Lynch when they were on the clock at 12th overall.

Widely considered the second best running back in the NFL Draft, behind only Adrian Peterson, it was presumed that Lynch would be drafted by either Green Bay or Tennessee if the Bills passed on him.

Now in Buffalo, Lynch has assumed a primary role in the offense. Of the other backs on the depth chart, only veteran Anthony Thomas carried more than two times last season. His 107 carries shouldered some of the load and it can be expected he’ll play a similar role this season, allowing Lynch to grow in the offense without putting too much pressure on him. Expect 20+ touches per game for Lynch during the season.

Draft him? Sure. He’s a safe bet to be the team’s starting running back.

Minnesota VikingsAdrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings) — Oklahoma’s Adrian Peterson was considered a “boom-bust” type pick entering the draft, meaning he could either become a great back in the NFL (boom!) or he could slip into oblivion (bust). The greatest reason for this is his history of injuries. He only played 18 games in his final two seasons at Oklahoma, 7 in 2006. Also, of his 4045 career rushing yards, 1925 came in his first season, 2004.

But that didn’t shy Minnesota from drafting Peterson with the 7th overall pick. Possessing both great speed and a knack for bowling defenders over, Peterson has entered the Minnesota minicamps right behind last season’s starter Chester Taylor. Though Taylor thinks the duo will be a “1-2 punch,” it’s only a matter of time before Peterson moves to 1 in that equation.

When that happens is still up for debate. Peterson has been impressing coaches, especially with his receiving ability. Expect 18+ touches per game for Peterson when he does enter the lineup as the starting back, and 5-10 before that.

Draft him? Peterson is definitely draftable, but I’d wait until a late round to pull the trigger. He might not see a lot of playing time right away and he’s a bit of an injury risk.

What do you think? Which of the following will you draft, if any? What are your projections? Speak up! I love to hear from you!


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2 Comments

  1. There always seems to be a back out here that surprises me and makes me crazy every season. Even though I hate to admit it, Lynch may be that player this season. However, guaranteed if I draft him, he’ll be a bust. LOL!

    -FanProphet

  2. Tom

    Haha! I have the same problems when I draft!

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