Sophomore quarterbacks examined; who will be the best?

Three quarterbacks enter the fray this season as their first full season of play: Jay Cutler, Matt Leinart, and Vince Young. The question now becomes, How will each perform? And more importantly, Who do and draft and where do I draft him?

First and foremost, meet the candidates:

Jay Cutler — Cutler enters the 2007 season with the best surrounding cast. Additions on offense hope to improve the team’s unit from last season’s oft-lackluster performances. Travis Henry enters 2007 as Denver’s starting running back while Daniel Graham will start at tight end and Brandon Stokley will be the team’s slot receiver. All three additions make it obvious that the Broncos want to give Cutler the best chance to succeed in the offense. The moves also emphasize experience, probably to compensate for Cutler’s lack.

Cutler also has the benefit of a great defense on the other side of the ball. Because of this he’ll spend fewer games fighting for the lead in the final minutes or putting on a shootout. He’ll also be under less pressure which should translate into fewer mistakes.

2006 game-by-game statistics

+----------+--------------------------+----------------+
| WK  OPP  |  CMP  ATT   PYD  TD  INT |  RSH    YD  TD |
+----------+--------------------------+----------------+
| 13  sea  |   10   21   143   2   2  |    4    10   0 |
| 14  sdg  |   17   30   188   2   0  |    1     0   0 |
| 15  ari  |   21   31   261   2   1  |    3    10   0 |
| 16  cin  |   12   23   179   2   1  |    2    -1   0 |
| 17  sfo  |   21   32   230   1   1  |    2    -1   0 |
+----------+--------------------------+----------------+
|  TOTAL   |   81  137  1001   9   5  |   12    18   0 |
+----------+--------------------------+----------------+

Conclusion: Expect Cutler to finish 2007 with a solid fantasy season under his belt, with at least 3200 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.

Matt Leinart — While Jay Cutler may have a great cast, Leinart is surrounded by dynamic skill position players. With Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald at wide receiver, Leinart is lucky to have one of the best receiving duos in the league. And though Edgerrin James struggled last season, expect him to bounce back in 2007 with a better season.

However, notice that I said Leinart is surrounded by dynamic skill position players. Essentially, a skill position player is anyone who handles the football during the game. And that leaves out which critical postion? Offensive line. The Cardinals once again enter the 2007 season with question marks on the line. And though they tried to address some of the needs via the draft, it can be assumed the line will struggle once again.

2006 game-by-game statistics

+----------+--------------------------+----------------+
| WK  OPP  |  CMP  ATT   PYD  TD  INT |  RSH    YD  TD |
+----------+--------------------------+----------------+
|  4  atl  |    6    9    54   0   1  |    1    -7   0 |
|  5  kan  |   22   35   253   2   1  |    1     4   0 |
|  6  chi  |   24   42   232   2   0  |    0     0   0 |
|  7  oak  |   13   32   203   0   2  |    3     5   0 |
|  8  gnb  |   14   35   157   1   1  |    1     2   0 |
| 10  dal  |   20   38   216   0   2  |    4    18   1 |
| 11  det  |   19   29   233   1   0  |    6     7   1 |
| 12  min  |   31   51   405   1   2  |    1     0   0 |
| 13  stl  |   15   24   186   1   0  |    0     0   0 |
| 14  sea  |   21   34   232   2   1  |    2    -3   0 |
| 15  den  |   20   35   214   0   2  |    3    23   0 |
| 16  sfo  |    9   13   162   1   0  |    0     0   0 |
+----------+--------------------------+----------------+
|  TOTAL   |  214  377  2547  11  12  |   22    49   2 |
+----------+--------------------------+----------------+

Conclusion: Leinart is cursed by his offensive line, but that doesn’t necessarily mean all his numbers will struggle. Expect at least 3500 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions.

Vince Young — 2006’s rookie of the year was honored this offseason by being named cover boy of the upcoming Madden 08 installment. Unfortunately, that doesn’t necessarily bode well for Young; each of the past cover athletes has experienced either an injury or severe decline in production after appearing. It’s probably why LaDainian Tomlinson turned down the offer.

If you’re still not afraid of the “curse,” let’s break Young down. Essentially, he is the type of player who doesn’t post big numbers. Instead, he just wins ballgames. Whether that means running with the ball or throwing it downfield to one of his receivers, he’ll get the job done. But that doesn’t mean he’ll be the best quarterback for your fantasy team.

He’s also cursed by his team’s general management failures. They spent this offseason doing essentially nothing to improve his cast. They could have more strongly pursued Michael Turner or even made a strong offer and acquired Keyshawn Johnson. But because they did neither, Young will be forced to carry the team in 2007. That’s asking a lot from a second-year quarterback.

2006 game-by-game statistics

+----------+--------------------------+----------------+
| WK  OPP  |  CMP  ATT   PYD  TD  INT |  RSH    YD  TD |
+----------+--------------------------+----------------+
|  1  nyj  |    3    4    27   0   1  |    0     0   0 |
|  2  sdg  |    7   20   106   1   0  |    5    24   0 |
|  4  dal  |   14   29   155   1   2  |    5     3   0 |
|  5  ind  |   10   21    63   0   1  |    4    43   1 |
|  6  was  |   13   25   161   1   0  |    7     9   0 |
|  8  hou  |    7   15    87   1   0  |    4    44   1 |
|  9  jax  |   15   36   163   1   3  |    4    14   0 |
| 10  bal  |   13   25   211   0   1  |    8    39   1 |
| 11  phi  |    8   22   101   1   0  |    6    49   0 |
| 12  nyg  |   24   35   249   2   0  |   10    69   1 |
| 13  ind  |   15   25   163   2   2  |    9    78   0 |
| 14  hou  |   19   29   218   0   1  |    7    86   1 |
| 15  jax  |    8   15    85   0   0  |    4     4   0 |
| 16  buf  |   13   20   183   2   0  |    8    61   1 |
| 17  nwe  |   15   36   227   0   2  |    2    29   1 |
+----------+--------------------------+----------------+
|  TOTAL   |  184  357  2199  12  13  |   83   552   7 |
+----------+--------------------------+----------------+

Conclusion: You can expect Young to finish with a decent season by fantasy standards, assuming he isn’t really cursed. His greatest strength is his running ability, something that will earn him more points than anything else. Expect at least 2300 yards passing, 450 yards rushing, 13 touchdown passes and interceptions, and 5 rushing touchdowns.

Who’s it gonna be? Based on my projections above, I expect Young to finish with the best overall season, though both Cutler and Leinart will finish with nearly as many points. All three are projected to finish with about 200 points. In other words, no matter who you draft, you’re going to get a decent fantasy quarterback. In my opinion, the safest choice is Jay Cutler because of his surrounding cast.

What do you think? Which of these quarterbacks will you be drafting?

If you think the concept of this article is familiar, you’re right. Last month I published an article asking which quarterback will excel and take his team to the playoffs. The article you just read, however, is fantasy football oriented.