Though it is generally accepted each season that Peyton Manning will be the first quarterback drafted, there is some unsettled debate as to who should be taken second and thereafter.
The usual candidates return: Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck, Marc Bulger, and Carson Palmer. But a new contender entered the fray last season, Drew Brees. His unprecedented 4418 yards, 26 touchdowns, and mere 11 interceptions gave him the nod as the second best producer at quarterback in 2006.
Fantasy owners, meet your top six fantasy quarterbacks for the 2007 season:
5. Tom Brady — Calm, cool, collected, Brady quietly appears near the top of the charts in nearly every significant passing category, year in and out. 2005 was statistically the best performance of his career, but in 2006 he struggled to acclimate himself after he lost his number one receiving target to a trade, though still finishing 7th among quarterbacks.
He regains a prototypical number one receiving target in 2007, Randy Moss, someone he can count on in clutch situations and someone who can separate himself from a defender on deep passing routes. On paper and in theory, the Patriots are a Super Bowl contender; how significant is that for Tom Brady’s expectations?
3-year statistics
+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Passing | Rushing |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| 2004 nwe | 16 | 288 474 60.8 3692 7.8 28 14 | 43 28 0 |
| 2005 nwe | 16 | 334 530 63.0 4110 7.8 26 14 | 27 89 1 |
| 2006 nwe | 16 | 319 516 61.8 3529 6.8 24 12 | 49 102 0 |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| TOTAL | 96 | 1896 3064 61.9 21564 7.0 147 78 | 239 435 3 |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
Conclusion: Brady can be expected to throw for 3700+ yards, 25 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in 2007.
4. Drew Brees — Drew Brees was an icon for the New Orleans Saints last season, a team that had embodied the spirit of a city following the horrific tragedy of Hurricane Katrina. But the question many are asking at this point is, was it a fluke? Will the Saints return to the playoffs in 2007?
Regardless of the answers to those questions, an equally significant question was raised by fantasy owners: where does Brees go from here? It’s difficult to match a season like 2006, and the numbers show that Brees had only once thrown for more than 3200 yards prior to last season, and he experienced an elbow dislocation during the first quarter of the Pro Bowl. Prone to injuries in the past, it was disheartening news for wary owners to hear.
The Saints also lost sure-handed veteran receiver Joe Horn to the Atlanta Falcons during this offseason, something Brees will need to adjust to.
3-year statistics
+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Passing | Rushing |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| 2004 sdg | 15 | 262 400 65.5 3159 7.9 27 7 | 53 85 2 |
| 2005 sdg | 16 | 323 500 64.6 3576 7.2 24 15 | 21 49 1 |
| 2006 nor | 16 | 356 554 64.3 4418 8.0 26 11 | 42 32 0 |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| TOTAL | 75 | 1481 2363 62.7 16766 7.1 106 64 | 177 398 4 |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
Conclusion: 2006 wasn’t a fluke. Brees will return to form, though I’m not necessarily suggesting another 4400 yard, 26 TD season. You can, however, expect him to throw for at least 3850 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in 2007.
3. Marc Bulger — Though the Rams finished last season with a mediocre record, there was nothing average about Bulger’s performance. With 4301 yards, 24 touchdowns, and only 8 interceptions, Bulger finished 3rd among all fantasy quarterbacks.
Bulger’s greatest benefit is coming from Steven Jackson’s success running the football. He brings a dynamic presence, something that Bulger obviously took advantage of last season when he threw Jackson 90 passes.
A solid passer, Bulger has ranked in the top 10 in fantasy points for quarterbacks in three of the past four seasons. In 2005 he missed 8 games due to injury.
3-year statistics
+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Passing | Rushing |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------
| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| 2004 stl | 14 | 321 485 66.2 3964 8.2 21 14 | 19 89 3 |
| 2005 stl | 8 | 192 287 66.9 2297 8.0 14 9 | 9 29 0 |
| 2006 stl | 16 | 370 588 62.9 4301 7.3 24 8 | 18 44 0 |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| TOTAL | 60 | 1357 2106 64.4 16233 7.7 95 59 | 87 224 8 |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
Conclusion: Bulger will again reign among the most consistent quarterbacks week in and out. Expect a season with at least 4000 yards passing, 23 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.
2. Carson Palmer — Still young, Palmer completed just his third season (in which he played at least one snap) in 2006. That just goes to show you the expectations owners already have.
And why not? After all, he returned for his second consecutive Pro Bowl last season and threw for 4035 yards. He’s surrounded by stars on the offense and he handles otherwise dominant defenses in his division (Baltimore and Pittsburgh, namely) with great precision. He has a top-tier wide receiver in Chad Johnson and another solid target in T.J. Houshmandzadeh (or Who’s-Your-Mama, depending on whether or not you can pronounce his name). Running back Rudi Johnson finished with his third consecutive 1300+ rushing yards, 12 rushing touchdown season.
All things considered, the Bengals offense (and your fantasy team) is in good hands with Palmer under center.
3-year statistics
+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Passing | Rushing |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| 2004 cin | 14 | 263 432 60.9 2897 6.7 18 18 | 18 47 1 |
| 2005 cin | 16 | 345 509 67.8 3836 7.5 32 12 | 34 41 1 |
| 2006 cin | 16 | 324 520 62.3 4035 7.8 28 13 | 26 37 0 |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| TOTAL | 46 | 932 1461 63.8 10768 7.4 78 43 | 78 125 2 |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
Conclusion: Palmer will just keep getting better as his experience grows. Expect at least 4000 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions in 2007.
1. Peyton Manning — Certain to be the first quarterback taken in your fantasy draft again this year, there’s little reason to believe he won’t deliver. Though he may never again experience a 49 touchdown season like he did in 2004, expect great results.
The Colts still maintain a great duo at the number one and two receiving spots with Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, not to mention that the team retains Dallas Clark at tight end, though he is basically a receiver who can line up in the slot or on the line of scrimmage.
Manning himself hasn’t missed a game since he entered the league back in 1998. In that time he’s only thrown for less than 4000 yards twice, and he’s only missed a Pro Bowl once since 1999.
3-year statistics
+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Passing | Rushing |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| 2004 ind | 16 | 336 497 67.6 4557 9.2 49 10 | 25 38 0 |
| 2005 ind | 16 | 305 453 67.3 3747 8.3 28 10 | 33 45 0 |
| 2006 ind | 16 | 362 557 65.0 4397 7.9 31 9 | 23 36 4 |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| TOTAL | 144 | 3131 4890 64.0 37586 7.7 275 139 | 269 701 13 |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
Conclusion: Manning is still your best bet at quarterback. Expect at least 4200 yards, 31 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions in 2007. On a side note, don’t be surprised if the Colts return to the Super Bowl, even if it means going through the Patriots to do it.
***
Bonus player evaluation:
Matt Hasselbeck – Though he had been one of the most consistent starting quarterbacks for years, Hasselbeck experienced a bump in the road last season. Due to nagging injuries and Shaun Alexander’s absence for part of the season, Hasselbeck struggled and in 12 games finished with only 2442 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions.
But 2007 should see him return to the form he displayed the season prior when he completed 24 touchdowns and only 9 interceptions en route to an NFC Championship. There is reason for optimism for a few reasons. One, the Madden Curse is over and Alexander can return to rushing for over 1000 yards and keeping defenses off-balance. Two, Deion Branch spent most of last season acclimating himself to the offense. He will be more comfortable this season as Hasselbeck’s number one target.
3-year statistics
+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Passing | Rushing |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| 2004 sea | 14 | 279 474 58.9 3382 7.1 22 15 | 27 90 1 |
| 2005 sea | 16 | 294 449 65.5 3455 7.7 24 9 | 36 124 1 |
| 2006 sea | 12 | 210 371 56.6 2442 6.6 18 15 | 18 110 0 |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| TOTAL | 105 | 1552 2576 60.2 18366 7.1 114 72 | 207 802 5 |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
Conclusion: I fully expect Hasselbeck to return to his former self in 2007, free of injuries and all. Expect him to throw for at least 3400 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions.
***
There you have it. 6 of the top quarterbacks evaluated and projected. Disagree? Drop me a line in the comment box. Have similar or different projections? Drop me a line in the comment box. Basically, if you have something to say, drop me a line in the comment box.
2 comments ↓
Brady at number 5? Whoa! I definitely respect your opinions but I look for Brady to have a much bigger season than most people anticipate. I also believe Brees’ numbers could suffer a little with the loss of Joe Horn, a real veteran leader. Thanks for the writing, it’s really good.
-FanProphet
I agree that Brady has loads of potential, but I’m not sure if he’ll surpass the other guys on this list. Palmer, Bulger, and Brees are on offenses that have heavily relied on the past over the past few years and I see that trend continuing.
Thanks for the compliments. I enjoy your blog too.
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