Since breaking the touchdown record last season, San Diego’s LaDainian Tomlinson — or LT for those who have trouble spelling his name or lack the patience to pronounce it — has become the pinnacle fantasy knight in shining armor. Almost to the point that owners may be thinking he alone will win them a championship.
Not to say they’re wrong. Hey, Tomlinson earned that respect and admiration when he skipped past defenders en route to 31 touchdowns last season. But was 2006 an anomaly, a sort of “fluke” that spiked well past his statistical average?
For the sake of argument, I’m going to break down the three reasons you might want to reconsider LT at numero uno come draft day.
1. Let’s take a look at Tomlinson’s seasonal performances prior to 2006:
+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Rushing | Receiving |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 2001 sdg | 16 | 339 1236 3.6 10 | 59 367 6.2 0 |
| 2002 sdg | 16 | 372 1683 4.5 14 | 79 489 6.2 1 |
| 2003 sdg | 16 | 313 1645 5.3 13 | 100 725 7.2 4 |
| 2004 sdg | 15 | 339 1335 3.9 17 | 53 441 8.3 1 |
| 2005 sdg | 16 | 339 1462 4.3 18 | 51 370 7.3 2 |
| 2006 sdg | 16 | 348 1815 5.2 28 | 56 508 9.1 3 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| TOTAL | 95 | 2050 9176 4.5 100 | 398 2900 7.3 11 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
Notice, if you will, that LT had never finished a season with more than 20 total touchdowns before. That said, his touchdown totals have been clearly jumping at a constant rate: 10-15-17-18-20-31. And prior to 2006 he had never actually been the number one fantasy running back in the NFL; granted, he was top 3 for the prior four seasons, but never number one.
His record-breaking 2006 season, therefore, might be considered a fluke that happened because the team lacked a strong passing game and depended on Tomlinson to shoulder the entire load. Fortunately, LT rose to the occasion and broke a record in the process, but how does that bode for him in 2007?
2. A Tale of Two Turners
The Chargers hired Norv Turner for essentially one reason: continuity. He implemented the offense the team has used since 2001 and there won’t be a steep learning curve for players.
Norv Turner plans to use Michael Turner on offense more than ever next season. Just today (Michael) Turner was quoted saying he has visions of more gametime next season.
“I would imagine they’ll try to use me more since they only have me one more season (and are) paying a little more,†Michael Turner said. “I would imagine they would use LT and me (together) more.”
Any carries that Turner receives will take away from Tomlinson’s total. If Turner surpasses the 80 carries he received last season — he’ll be doing more than just spot-work in 2007 — Tomlinson is going to walk away with fewer than the 348 he had last season.
3. The Schedule
It’s working against Tomlinson in 2007. He faces five of the top six rushing defenses in the NFL next season. Certainly that can’t bode well for him.
The Conclusion
Is this article meant to influence you against drafting Tomlinson? Absolutely not.
As you can read, the reasons against drafting Tomlinson are hardly dangerous risks. In fact, there are few players in the NFL who are a more sure-thing.
Instead, my hope is that you consider all the obstacles that may keep Tomlinson from being a repeat as fantasy player of the year. Is he the number one player available? Or is someone like Steven Jackson going to challenge him? That’s for you to decide.
As for me, I’m predicting a 2050+ yard (all-purpose), 22+ touchdown season.
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