Which sophomore quarterback will excel in 2007?

Which of the following three sophomore quarterback stands the best chance to succeed in 2007? Your choices:

Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos — after stepping in for an erratic Jake Plummer, Cutler started the final five games of the 2006 season, completing 59% of his passes and posting an 88.5 rating in 2 wins and 3 losses.

Matt Leinart, Arizona Cardinals — after the Cardinals grew weary of watching Kurt Warner play, the team made the decision to start Leinart. Arizona never looked back and Leinart ended up starting 11 games and throwing for 2547 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Vince Young, Tennessee Titans — while he didn’t post the prettiest numbers — 2199 yards and 66.7 quarterback rating — Young succeeded in rallying the his teammates. Posting an 8-5 record, including a 6 game tear that almost landed the Titans in the playoffs, Young was voted the NFL’s rookie of the year and will be featured on the cover of Madden 08.

Difficult choices. On this list we have three players whose teams could all be featured in January, given the right circumstances. 2006’s rookie of the year (Young), the heir to John Elway (Cutler), and one of the greatest quarterbacks in college football history (Leinart) will all be keenly watched in 2007.

But, first of all, who stands the best chance of breaking out in 2007 and not slipping into a “sophomore slump?” Which of the three stands the best chance of leading his team to the playoffs (and beyond)?

As noted, Vince Young is featured on the cover of Madden, a sign that has not boded well for past recipients of the honor. Urban legends aside, however, I can’t see Young living up to last season in that offense. The Titans would have been wise to have more heavily pursued Keyshawn Johnson while he was available. Without Johnson the team is left with a mediocre receiving corps that will struggle to create separation from defenders. Not to mention that the team’s running game will struggle throughout the season, allowing defenses to focus on breaking up the passing game.

Matt Leinart, on the other hand, is plagued for different reasons. His team still doesn’t have a defense that will consistently hold opposing offenses, and his own offensive line is in doubt. Certainly the team took strides to improve its line, but not enough to ensure Leinart’s protection. Even Pro Bowl running back Edgerrin James struggled (mightily) last season running behind Arizona’s line. But Leinart does have something Young does not: wide receivers. Both Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are Pro Bowl quality receivers who Leinart can count on. (Note: NFL Network analyst Marshall Faulk picked Leinart when presented with this question)

But the player who stands the best chance of seeing success in 2007 is Jay Cutler. Unlike his draftmates, Cutler is surrounded by talent on both sides of the ball. Because of this, he will not feel the same kind of pressure to lead his team from behind on a consistent basis or score 30 points a game to stay ahead. That’s what a great defense provides. Plus, the Broncos made an effort to surround Cutler with as much talent on offense as possible. Acquiring Travis Henry, Daniel Graham, and Brandon Stokley will pay great dividends to Cutler’s growth.

This is not to imply that Young and Leinart will have bad seasons next year. In fact, they both might succeed and make the playoffs. At this point it’s difficult to say. But considering the given circumstances, Jay Cutler is in the best position to both make a difference and see his team to the playoffs in 2007.