Every year, no matter what the facts tell us, someone is going to tell you that round one quarterbacks are severely overrated and teams should just wait until later in the draft. After all, they say, look at Tom Brady. The Patriots took him in the sixth round and he’s arguably the best quarterback in the NFL.

I’m not going to argue that it is impossible to grab a great quarterback after round one of the draft. Hey, it’s happened before. But as one blog has pointed out, it’s statistically unlikely to happen.

Read the evidence and form your own opinion. The below portion is an exerpt from the article used:

The Davis Theory:

“If you want a QB, go up to Round 1 and take one of the top guys. If not, you are wasting a pick”

Furthermore, of the projected starters in the 2007 season, below are the draft positions:

Round 1: 17 (53.1%)
Round 2: 3 (9.4%)
Round 3: 4 (12.5)
Round 4-7: 3 (9.4%)
Undrafted: 5 (15.6%)

So the odds are stacked in the favor of a team drafting their starting QB in Round 1. The only QBs currently starting that were drafted in Round 2 are:

Brett Favre (1991)
Drew Brees (2001)
Tavaris Jackson (2006)

It should be noted that Favre and Brees were drafted 33rd and 32nd overall respectively.

When I read this article I was blown away by how obvious it is. But it all really does make sense. Think about it, can you really name any quarterbacks — not Tom Brady — who were taken late in the draft and have developed into Pro Bowlers?

The fact is, Kolb, Stanton, and Beck are all quarterbacks who have the necessary skills to succeed in this league. But the NFL is a totally different game than college ball, and they will need more than raw physical ability. I’m not dooming them to fail — and neither is the above article — but the odds are clearly stacked against them.

We often criticize scouts because we find the one or two players who slipped under their radars and were drafted late. But looking at the stats above I think it is fairly obvious that NFL personnel men know what they’re doing.

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